Had to Have It

The win is so fresh that I can barely believe it has actually happened. The Cubs just swept the Marlins this weekend in south Florida behind a ton of runs and a gem by Greg Maddux. This was a must have series, and the Cubs so rarely come up clutch, that I am thinking about heading to the track to try my luck. Was it enough to salvage the season? Not yet, but it's an absolutely HUGE step.

Two losses in Miami would've tasted pretty bad going into the All Star Break. Instead the Cubs have some momentum, such a rarity that I wish the break wasn't starting today, let the Northsiders go while they're going good. But we can't do anything about that. The midseason "classic" is here and home field advantage for the World Series will be decided on Tuesday. (I just wanted to put that in writing so we could see how ludicrous it is. But I love it. If Tampa Bay's Danys Baez could save the game Tuesday, he may personally ensure that the Cardinals are on the road again in the Fall Classic. He plays for the D-Rays, but he may be a deciding factor in the World Series!)

Anyway, back to the Cubs, since there is never baseball on my birthday, thanks to the always underwhelming All-Star game, I'll consider this sweep my birthday present. At the break the Cubs are one game below .500 and 6 games out of the wildcard. Not great, but considering the injuries to Prior, Wood and Garciaparra, I would grade their first half a B-. If not for the weeklong swoon still fresh in my mind, I would grade the first half a total success. Instead I'll stick with slightly exceeding expectations after factoring in injuries.

Due to the unbalanced schedule, three of the four teams in front of the Chicago for the wild card are in the NL East. What this means is that those teams haven't played each other much in the first half, so when they do, they'll even each other out. (Barring dominance by any one team, which could be Atlanta.) It looks like the wild card will come down to the second place finisher in the Central versus the second place finisher in the East.

The bad news is this: the Cubs play the Cardinals 14 times in the second half. With the division title all but out of reach, these games simply represent a fortnight of torment rather than a chance to catch the Cards. I guess of the Cubs swept all 14, that would put them in the lead, but that ain't happening. I'm estimating that to even stay in the race for the wild card, the Cubbies will need to take 10 out of 14 against the Cards. Not easy to do. But Chicago does get the last place Reds 10 times, which helps, as well as 7 games with the Pirates. However, as I discussed earlier, the Cubs certainly don't win all the games they're supposed to, but, on paper, it breathes a little confidence.

But mark my words, it all comes down to the Cardinals. 10 wins and I think they're in.