He was surprisingly lukewarm on Rich Rodriguez which was too bad because I was prepared to goad him with a bet that Nebraska would have a better 2008 season than Michigan would.
I still believe that and since my boss wouldn't take the bait I'll make the case here. If it goes well, maybe I'll keep making it with a few other teams opening 08 with a new
head coach.MICHIGAN
2008 RECORD: 9-4
FINAL AP RANK: 18
Problems Michigan has but Nebraska doesn't: Number one, Nebraska will not be ushering in a (totally) new offense. That's a hurdle the Huskers have already cleared and nobody here needs to be reminded of the ugliness of that first season. That's the way a major offensive overhaul works. Some things are always lost in translation. In this case it's probably games, or at least more games than you're used to losing at a place like Michigan.
But wait there's more. With the transfer of The Mallett Man--who already has his own Arkansas fansite replete with his name misspelled--Michigan will be lead in their quest for the spread by ???. Best case scenario Rodriguez reels in Terrelle Pryor and takes his lumps with a true freshman quarterback. Worst case Pryor goes to tOSU and Michigan opens the Rodriguez era with a QB who has never thrown a collegiate pass. Neither option bodes particularly well for 2008.
Even Joe Dailey was better than nobody. I think.
Problems Nebraska has but Michigan doesn't: Nebraska's defense in '07 was as resistant as a tear-away jersey. Michigan, on the other hand, finished with the #24 defense in the country. The Wolverines will return seven starters off that defense, Nebraska will bring back six, none of whom are linebackers. But, then again, that's why we got Bo Pelini. To make head up, butt low, 11 men to the ball miracles.
Pelini's not the guy you buy, he's the guy you kill so you don't have to face his ferocious defense...or something like that. (Sorry, Oscars hangover.)
The proof is in the schedule a.k.a. The path of least resistance: As if playing in the mind-numbing Big 10 wasn't enough, Michigan's big non-conference game of the year is their season opener with Utah. It's far from a gimme and there will be a lot of pressure considering the debacle that was last year's season opener and the great unveiling of Michigan 2.0, but even coming off a 9-4 season the Utes aren't exactly the '07 pre-Super Bowl Patriots. (Note: I'm not considering Notre Dame a non-conference game as everyone knows they should be in the Big 10 anyway.)
Nebraska, however, might have a marginally easier schedule than they did last year, but it's a razor thin margin. USC is replaced by Virginia Tech and Nebraska will get the added benefit of an off-week leading up to the showdown with the Hokies. But after that things get interesting quickly.
The Big 12 will be a beast next year and the only conference heavyweight Nebraska misses is Texas. After the Virginia Tech game, the Cornhuskers face Missouri (probable preseason Top 5) at home followed by a road trip to Lubbock for Mike Leach's best Texas Tech squad yet. Throw in a road trip to Oklahoma backed by a home game against Kansas and you have two absolute minefields for 2008. Welcome to head coaching, Bo.
The Verdict: There are a number of ways to define "better season." It could mean more wins, it might mean higher final rank, it should mean winning head-to-head in the playoffs, but in this case I'd put my money on progress from 07 to 08.
Michigan will likely start the season a ranked team but I'd be shocked if they stayed there. There aren't a lot of scheduled losses at a glance--only Ohio State and either Illinois or Wisconsin seem likely right now--but I have major questions about whether or not Rodriguez was the right fit at Michigan.
He was the flashy hire, sure, but he definitely doesn't fit the mold of "THE MICHIGAN MAN" (see also: Callahan, Bill and Nebraska). He's a little too flashy, a little too slick. Michigan has the athletes to run the spread right now (minus a QB) and they'll keep coming, but Rodriguez had some pretty good athletes at West Virginia.
What, exactly, has he won? The Sugar Bowl against Georgia? He definitely did not win against hapless Pitt with a bid to the mythical national title game on the line. Mix in the whole hullabaloo regarding his departure from West F'n Virginia and you have a lot of questions that won't necessarily be answered by the offense of the week.
Nebraska? Well, they just have to restore their entire defensive tradition but they brought in perhaps the best available person for the job. That's not to say there won't be questions about Pelini's ability. He's got a long way to go to even reach Rodriguez's "he shrinks in the spotlight" status, but he'll have every opportunity to get a good start right away.
Should Nebraska go even 2-3 in their big five games next year--and not drop any they shouldn't--they'll end up in the Top 25. Win three of those five and the buzz will be officially back on a national scale.*
In the end it's all about trends. Nebraska can't really fall any lower than they did last year but Michigan? Who knows? I wouldn't say they'll be awful, but I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan fans started looking at Nebraska fans as a support group in 2008.
After all, that's what I did with Notre Dame fans last year.
* We here at HiPlainsDrifter recognize that expectations must be tempered, tongues bitten, time given. I will not be heartbroken if Nebraska loses four or five games next season but honestly I think they'll be pretty good.
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