I should've been ecstatic that the first Saturday in M
ay just happened to follow Cinco de Mayo, but instead I spent most of the day concerned over how to adequately celebrate two of my favorite days of the year. I consider a well-made margarita one of the most exquisite cocktails a man can drink, but at the same time my own personal tradition dictates a stop at Brookline News & Gifts for the Form, followed by bourbon and Beyer speed figures on the Friday before the Derby. It's not like I could lose either way, but with a Saturday full of decision making ahead of me I didn't need any more confusion.
So I split the difference. I mixed up a margarita, put on Los Tigres Del Norte and watched the Kentucky Oaks, then broke out the Blanton's, mint leaves and colored pens and got to work dissecting the Derby. And like my first experience in 8th grade cutting up owl pellets, I'm left with a mess, but I'm going to try to make some sense of it.
The Derby is always a challenge to handicap. The horses are too young, the jockeys too good and the trainers too tight-lipped to garner any real insight. For every positive there's a negative, so in that sense it's like statistics and Bible verses, show me one that supports and I'll show you one that detracts. But at the same time, that's what makes the Derby great: so many opinions, so many opportunities and most of them can be supported on some front.
I don't consider myself an expert handicapper. I know enough to read the form and make some deductions, but beyond that I'm your average punter who makes it to the track three or four times a year. I guess I'm biased towards speed figures and a clear demonstration of competitiveness and heart. Every year I spend about a week prepping for the Derby, only to have everything derailed in the last 30 minutes to post, scrambling for some random win/place bets that have, so far, kept me in the black.
With that said, let's get to the horseflesh. (Listed by post position with morning line odds in parentheses.)
1. Jazil (30-1)
A stone cold closer with little to recommend him other than the promise of a grueling pace and favorable post position. Jazil doesn't seem to have the Beyer figures of a Derby winner, minus the 97 he posted in the Wood Memorial. A closer will finish on the board, just not this one.
2. Steppenwolfer (30-1)
I really liked Steppenwolfer's close in the Arkansas Derby and he immediately became my longshot on the bottom of exotics. He's finished second to Lawyer Ron in two of his last three starts and the extra distance could help him if the first fractions are as hot as expected. I would like to see a Beyer in the triple digits, but I still think he can hit the board.
3. Keyed Entry (30-1)
Posted a 110 BSF in early February, but he's already lost to two Derby horses I'm not favoring. I hated the race he ran in the Wood Memorial, where it looked like he quit, and he seems primed to get locked in with the early speedsters.
4. Sinister Minister (12-1)
Is he the next War Emblem or not? No one thought that horse could take it gate to wire in 2002, but he managed it and Sinister Minister has the highest Beyer in the field after the Illinois Derby. I suspect you'll hear his name early, but not late.
5. Point Determined (12-1)
He has the blood to do it, sired by Point Given who was sired by former Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and the trainer in Baffert. His daddy lost as the prohibitive favorite and Point Determined will need a little luck early to disprove the "old adage", it's better Given than Determined. Probably a part of any exotics.
6. Showing Up (20-1)
I love when owners give you a built in slight with their colt's name and the people at Lael Stables have happily complied as I don't see Showing Up doing much more than that. It looks like this horse's best is a few races away as he's only got three lifetime starts. It's all a matter of experience, but he is 3 for 3 in those starts with speed figures that stack up. The Derby is a tough race for a newcomer, but I'll keep an eye on the tote board here for a late win wager if the odds are right.
7. Bob and John (12-1)
A bit of an overlay at 12-1, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't go off at odds longer than that. He's already lost to A.P. Warrior, Point Determined and Brother Derek and he looks like the least likely of Baffert's three to be in the running. Looks like he has the speed, but as with every horse in this race who can make that claim, can he rate?
8. Barbaro (4-1)
He's the co-second choice because, while he has speed, he has shown he doesn't mind holding back. I loved his strength in the stretch during the Florida Derby, holding off a hard-charging Sharp Humor and he'll probably get a portion of my betting interest in one form or another.
9. Sharp Humor (20-1)
This colt only has one loss this year, the aforementioned Florida Derby, and I was mighty impressed with his race there. If he can resist running with Sinister Minister early he could be a factor, but right now he looks like a tough omission. But if it's wet, watch out.
10. A.P. Warrior (15-1)
I absolutely love this horse for one reason: he's run against at least one fellow Derby starter in six of his eight lifetime starts. He's battle tested and he's been right in the thick of things with Point Determined and Brother Derek in the past. If he stays anywhere near 15-1 I'll take him straight up.
11. Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1)
Probably the most consistent Beyer figures of any horse in the field. He has a strong stretch run that seems tailor made for Churchill Downs, and, although he's the lone gelding, he showed a lot of balls in the Gotham following a bad trip. The only question with this horse is the value.
12. Private Vow (30-1)
Just make one not to take this horse here. Been chasing Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer in his last two, how can we expect him to get it done here?
13. Bluegrass Cat (30-1)
Another horse who's been beaten by other non-contenders in the field. Deputy Glitters, 50-1 on the morning line, beat him in the Tampa Derby and Storm Treasure, another 50-1 shot, took him in the Bluegrass Stakes.
14. Deputy Glitters (50-1)
Simply put, he ain't gold. After his performance in the slop at Aqueduct April 8, there's even less to like if it's wet.
15. Seaside Retreat (50-1)
Nope. His Beyer figures aren't even close, but his owner can always say he had a Derby horse. Could be over 100-1.
16. Cause to Believe (50-1)
Another owner making it to easy on we punters: I see little Cause to Believe here. (Thank you, I'll be here all night). This colt did beat Sinister Minister in the Cal Derby, but should be middle of the pack.
17. Lawyer Ron (4-1)
My favorite of the short priced horses. Ron's the most experienced
horse in the field, an invaluable trait in the Riot for the Roses, with 14 career starts. Some concern about whether or not he'll be able to stay off the early pace, but he did show versatility in the Rebel Stakes coming from fourth to win by three lengths.
Also interesting with this horse, the estate of his late owner James Hines, Jr., sold a majority stake in this horse just days ago. A vote of no confidence or just striking while the iron is hot? I hope it was an attempt to raise questions and drive up the odds, but we'll see.
18. Brother Derek (3-1)
Nothing not to like here...other than he's the favorite and will be carrying a bit more baggage onto the track on Saturday. Derek's had his way for much of the prep season, and the only potential question is whether or not he can get the same favorable position breaking from 18. You have to make some difficult decisions, and leaving Brother Derek out might be mine.
19. Storm Treasure (50-1)
Doesn't seem to have the resume of a Derby winner. He needs the rail and he won't get it from out here.
20. Flashy Bull (50-1)
Not really scientific, but Bull's trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, looked absolutely pissed about getting the last choice in the post selection ceremony on Wednesday. It didn't inspire confidence. This is another horse that could possibly nibble for a piece if he were on the inside, but from 20 he'll need a miracle. Nearly a carbon copy of Storm Treasure.
If the horses stick around their morning line odds (never happens), I'm looking at a finish of A.P. Warrior, Lawyer Ron, Steppenwolfer, and Barbaro. I'll probably box those four horses in some sort of exacta with Point Determined and then look for value on the tote board with straight up win bets on a few other underlays.
But my unconditional lock of the day for tomorrow? That my four buddies who will be waking up at 6 a.m. and shaking off their Cinco hangovers will definitely be calling as soon as they're on the road from Nashville to Louisville. I'm laying 1-5 on that. Vaya con dios!
Check back on Sunday for a full recap of the day from Suffolk Downs, plus the ultimate demolition of my handicapping skills.
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