Tumbling Dice - HPSWBT Week 1 Picks

It's the day I've waited almost all of 2007 for: the reconvening of the Hi-Plains Sports Wagering Brain Trust (HPSWBT). It's a small group of like-minded individuals, visionaries really, who like matching wits with the best college odds makers in the world. Right now it's just me, the ghost of Steve McQueen in character as the Cincinnati Kid, and that Canadian dude that Philip Seymour Hoffman played in that movie. Phil Steele continues to apply and continues to be rejected.

This is the third year of HPSWBT and for those of you unfamiliar with our method you can find a full explanation here or just read the abbreviated version below:

• We're not very fond of working. Research? That's not gambling. We're gamblers and we eternally have hunches.
  
• That said, no money ever actually changes hands. Entertainment and pride purposes only.
• Each week we pick 10 games that look intriguing from a spread perspective. They may not be the 10 biggest games, but the 10 best games to (theoretically) wager on.
• I always try to avoid the Nebraska game but never do.

Last year we finished 75-60-4, highlighted by a 7-o start on our special "I Don't Go Out on Saturdays Because It's Too Crowded" picks, abbreviated IDGOOSBITC. We're also fond of acronyms.

Let's get started...

LSU @ Miss. St. (+17.5)

Why wait to take a Thursday night game you really don't like but want a rooting interest? I really want to take the Bulldogs here with the points at home, but I can't quite make myself do it. Maybe if Croom made the Tigers wear purple (psychological advantage!) I could but, unable to confirm that, I think Mississippi State might actually be this bad.

Texas Tech @ SMU (+8)

I'm tired of hearing how awful and unevenly split the Big 12 is right now. The conference isn't worse than the Big East (Colin Cowherd). It isn't the 5th or 6th ranked conference in the BCS (Tim Brando). It is, however, the conference with the most intriguing slate of games on opening weekend as you'll soon see. The Red Raiders haven't lost to SMU since Bush Sr. was in office, winning each of the past 11 games by double-digits which, the ghost of Steve McQueen tells me, is more than eight.

Baylor @ TCU (-21)

The Frogs will win this game just not by that much. You have to figure the Bears can score at least twice which should be enough.

CSU v. Colorado (-2.5)

The Buffs need this game with a roadie against ASU and Florida State at Folsom in weeks 2 and 3. Colorado State has 18 returning starters but Dan Hawkins has questions of progress and nepotism to answer which, I believe, is called motivation.

Mizzou v. Illinois (+4.5)

The most shocking line of the week (sorry Hawaii). I know the Illini should be better this year but they're still young and they're still a team that's won eight games in the last four years. Missouri is the fashionable pick for the Big 12 North and, from what I've heard, could average 25 points per game playing only with their tight ends and Chase Daniel on offense. Four and a half points?

Kansas State @ Auburn (-13.5)

The only thing worse than picking Kansas State is having to root for them but given everyones dim view of the Big 12 I think I have to. Few teams have had a more tumultuous fall camp than KSU but I think Prince can ugly this up enough to keep it close against an Auburn squad that should be less than explosive with the ball.

Oklahoma St. @ Georgia (-6)

This line keeps going down, down, down and for good reason. Georgia returns a mere four starters on defense and they're facing a potent Okie State offense. This is a big game for both programs, OSU is on the come and could open some eyes here while Georgia is hearing echoes of being overrated early on. Should be a good one and should be an outright win for OSU.

Tennessee @ Cal (-6)

Erik Ainge's pinky problem only strengthens this play. Asking a team with 11 new starters to go on the road and beat a top 15 foe seems like a bit much. Keeping it close might be a challenge. Kudos to the Vols for scheduling this home and home, however.

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-2.5)

Let the nightmare begin for Notre Dame! That's more wishful thinking on my part than actual prognosis. Part of me thinks Chuck Weis might pull a win out of his hat here, but the part of me that likes to see ND lose is larger.

Nevada @ Nebraska (-21)

I thought this number would be a little lower but what can you do? Under Callahan Nebraska has won their season opener by an average of 32 points but Nevada is easily the best team they've played to start a season thus far. The game plan will be vanilla but Nebraska should be physical enough to dictate play on both sides of the ball.

Football season is upon us...enjoy!