Home field advantage - HPSWBT Week 4

Look at that, we're already at the quarter-pole in the 2007 BCS Stakes. In brief: LSU, USC, Florida...good; Syracuse, Auburn, Notre Dame...bad. Oklahoma? Looked good but I need to see a bit more.

After 10 days on the road, canvassing five states and seeing an ugly Nebrask win and an ugly Nebraska loss, I'm finally back on my home turf. And, while I didn't struggle as badly with my picks while on the road in past years, I wasn't writing home about my 10-10 record either. You tread water for too long and the gators will eventually get ya.

Alas, every Thursday the agony and ecstasy begins anew. It's a pretty pathetic slate of games to round out the non-conference portion of the schedule and all the good action is in the SEC. Of course, many people will tell you this is always the case.

Texas Ag. & Mech @ Miami (-2.5)

Not often you get a non-conference battle as good as this on a Thursday night. After looking ugly against Montana State and surviving Fresno State, the Aggies finally found a team to pound on in UL-M, but this Miami game marks the beginning of a brutal schedule from here on out. Ag. & Mech. needs a win here in what looks a lot like a toss-up. Do you want Franchione under those circumstances? On the road? I don't. Miami's defense will do enough to give their offense time to get cranking.

Oklahoma @ Tulsa (+23)

It's a great week for Big 12 weeknight games. Props to Oklahoma for going on the road against an in-state school. The Sooners earth-movers are too dominant for Tulsa to give them real fits, but the Golden Hurricanes can put some points of their own and, with a jacked Friday night lights crowd, I think they sneak in under the number.

Georgia @ Alabama (-3.5)

I've ridden the Saban express for the past two weeks but this is my stop. The win against Arkansas was nice but you can't overlook the fact that the Tide lost a three touchdown lead twice. The Dawgs have struggled in Tuscaloosa of late, but Richt won his only trip and I've got a feeling that the notion of starting 0-2 in the SEC will be enough to motivate UGA.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia (+3.5)

No shame for the Ramblin' Wreck in a loss to Boston College last week. The Eagles just might be the class of the ACC. Meanwhile, Virginia has swept Tobacco Road over the past two weeks, barely, but the last time I checked that didn't really earn you anything on the gridiron.

South Carolina @ LSU (-16.5)

I have four very strong thoughts on this game: 1) I fully expect LSU to win, 2) If I had to choose one coach to go in and win a conference game in Baton Rouge it would be Steve Spurrier, 3) South Carolina is not the 12th best team in the land, and 4) that said, 16.5 seems like a helluva lot of points a good Gamecock defense. Head Ball Coach loves to win games he shouldn't by uglying things up and that should be the case here. I doubt Blake Mitchell, who needs a permission slip just to audible, will be able to handle Bo Pelini's blitzes but USC's defense is nothing to scoff at either. It won't be the prettiest game of the weekend but it should be the most fun.

Kentucky @ Arkansas (-6)

I loved what Kentucky did last week and if they win here I'll be positively ecstatic, but I have a feeling that Darren McFadden has other ideas. The boss hawg had a huge game against 'Bama only to miss Arkansas' crucial offensive series with tweetie birds circling his head. Darren McFadden hates that crap. Expect him to take it out on the Wildcats.

Oregon @ Stanford (+16.5)

The Ducks have finally looked as flashy as their uniforms thus far in 2007. I rolled with the spunky Jim Harbaugh in week one against UCLA and the Cardinal got creamed. Then UCLA got creamed. Not Stanford gets creamed again.

Northwestern @ Ohio State (-22.5)

Northwestern should have beat Duke last week in the big conference brainiac bowl outgaining the Blue Devils 509 to 306, but they didn't, ensuring their school will live on in terms of major conference futility. Out west, Ohio State took a couple shots from Washington but won on the road. Don't look now, but the Buckeyes could be your Big 10 favorite, because...

Penn State @ Michigan (-3)

...I'm not sure the Lions have enough roar. The Big 10 needs Penn State to win here. Wisconsin is an underwhelming 3-0, nobody outside of Ohio wants to see the Buckeyes in the mix again and if Michigan can win the conference, well, start printing your Appy State - Big 10 Champions shirts. That leaves Penn State. The fate of the conference is in your hands. If the Nittanies can win here they're the legitimate front-runner. I don't think they can. Michigan's been exposed up the middle but now they're playing somebody more their speed and flavor (i.e. vanilla). If the Wolverines open 0-3 at the Big House I suggest it be repossessed.

Ball State @ Nebraska (-22.5)

This is not a motivational pick. I'm not picking against Nebraska for the first time this season to light a metaphorical fire under any metaphorical asses. Sadly, I'm not sure the Cornhuskers read this blog so I'd just be throwing a pick away if that was my motivation. It's not. I'm fairly certain Nebraska will win here. That's the Callahan way. Get embarrassed against the good teams and roll it up on teams you're physically better than by running the football. Ball State, to quote my favorite piece of scouting ever to come out of Indiana, is a bunch of mites, but mites are notoriously annoying and hard to contain. The Cardinals can score enough to keep this closer than three touchdowns and, if they get much closer than that, seats could get real hot in Lincoln. BSU is dangerous, but Nebraska has a lot to prove after last week.

Last Week: 5-5

Year to Date: 18-12