How Lucky Are We?

As you probably noticed Monday on HuskerExtra, Marlon Lucky is one of the ten players most likely to win the Heisman Trophy according to HeismanPundit.com.

Now, this is just one person's opinion but it is the opinion of the one person who probably spends more time researching and writing about the Heisman race than anyone in college football, mainstream media included. But more interesting than Lucky's inclusion on the list is that you're unlikely to find a Nebraska fan who would've placed their own starting running back on it.

Why is that? Lucky's undeniably Nebraska's best returning offensive player. His stats from 2007 stack up with just about anyone in the country: 1000+ yards rushing, 4.9 yards per carry, 700+ yards receiving. He's on everyone's preseason All-Big 12 team and the leading returning rusher in the conference. Pro scouts love him. Every pass he's ever completed has gone for a touchdown.

Yet, despite all of these things, heading into 2008 it feels like a lot of Nebraska fans are more excited about Roy Helu than they are Marlon Lucky. Again, the question is why?

I think the answer lies below. Here's a highlight reel of Lucky's 2007 season (odds are always good that online football highlights will contain some objectionable lyrical content...this one is no different):




Now, by way of comparison, here's an unfortunately titled compilation of Noel Devine's 2007 highlights:




What's the difference? Devine can make a 7-yard gain off a toss look spectacular (and last seven seconds, going sideline to sideline). Lucky doesn't make anything look spectacular. He doesn't run over, around or away from people. There is no quintessential Marlon Lucky highlight. If you had to name the most memorable play of his Nebraska career what would it be? The touchdown pass against Texas? Granted it's hard to compile much of a highlight reel running stretch plays and catching screen passes for three years straight but the simple fact is Lucky just isn't very flashy. He gets the job done, quite well I might add, but quietly.

There used to be a time in Nebraska football history where quietly getting the job done as a running back was just about the best thing you could do. But Marlon came along at a difficult time. He was the first big recruit the new regime reeled in, everything that Frank Solich had failed to do wrapped in one very highly touted package.

And now, four years later, Lucky is still trying to live up to that lofty Rivals ranking. When you get the #3 ranked running back in the country you almost instantly expect your jaw to start dropping. You expect to be floored early on and then more often after that.

But Marlon's not that kind of back. It doesn't seem like any Nebraska fans think to themselves, when facing an Oklahoma or a Missouri, "But we have Marlon Lucky." He's not that kind of back either.

He is, however, a Heisman contender according to the one guy who makes it his business to evaluate such subjective matters and, in the end, isn't that just about what you would expect out of a blue chip running back four years later?

A Quickie Heisman Watch [Heisman Pundit]

Awards Season

So they started passing stuff out yesterday in college football. A list of the men and the hardware they now hold:

• Antoine Cason, DB, Arizona - Thorpe
  
• Tim Tebow, QB, Florida - Maxwell, O'Brien
• Dan Connor, LB, Penn State - Bednarik
• Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas - Walker, Camp
  
• Thomas Webber, K, Arizona State - Groza
• Durant Brooks, P, Georia Tech - Guy
• Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Biletnikoff
• Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU - Outland, Lombardi

No real surprises there except for the fact that Crabtree became the first freshman ever to win the Biletnikoff Award. Glad he did, otherwise the Big 12 would've been shut out of the major non-Heisman awards. (And Chase Daniel is not winning that, either.)

But seeing Crabtree's success brought up something interesting regarding the Heisman. Why isn't Graham Harrell heading to New York right now? Here are his stats for 07: 160.5 QB Rating, 72.7 Comp. %, 5298 passing yards, 441.5 yds./game, 45 TDs, 14 INTs.

Now here are Colt Brennan's stats for 07: 166.5 QB Rating, 71.4 Comp. %, 4174 passing yards, 379 yds./game, 38 TDs, 14 INTs.

What's the difference? Harrell did play one more game than Brennan and, while it's at least possible that Brennan could've closed the seven touchdown gap between them in four quarters, he wasn't going to throw for 1124 yards in a game. Additionally, I've never seen Harrell wear a baseball cap over his ears on national television and I presume he doesn't say "brah." (I'm also assuming that Brennan does. Again, that's just an assumption, but when you look the part...)

June Jones says that Colt Brennan isn't a system quarterback and maybe he's not. That's not the point. The point is he has system stats. Graham Harrell does too but you barely heard his name mentioned in the Heisman race. Tim Tebow might win it and he's got the dreaded system stats as well.

So what's Harrell's major knock here? Was it because he didn't go undefeated against the likes of Charleston Southern, Norther Colorado, and Idaho? Is it just because nobody ever pays attention to the QB at Texas Tech? Why is their system always discounted more than others?

In all honesty, I don' care who wins the Heisman. Of the candidates actually invited, I'd go with McFadden, but only in Harrell's absence. It will be truly interesting to see what happens down in Lubbock next year. Crabtree is only a RS freshman and Harrell should be back for his final season, it's possible they'll be even better than they were this year.

Could he win it then in spite of the fact that he chose to play for Texas Tech? I, for one, hope so.