Twinkling on the Eve of the Derby

"On the TV the announcer is predicting how the race
will be run and famous people are asked their opinions.
I wait for a twinkle in my brain but nothing happens. Still
it's all so exciting I want to talk to someone about it..."
--Kentucky Derby Day, Belfast, Maine
Stephen Dobyns

I've been waiting for that twinkle all week, through the workouts and the draw for post and the conjecture, but I'm fairly certain no magic realizations are coming. They never do.

You can't even call handicapping the Derby an inexact science. The inexact part is accurate, but science seems to imply that there's a way to figure this all out. In theory there is, but after seeing Giacomo win in person, I'm not so sure it isn't like trying to predict that lottery. The fact that I keep trying has less to do with some inherent belief in my own intellectual capacity and more to do with the excitement of participating in the spectacle, the excitement that Dobyns mentions above.

I've got my own julep in hand--no EarlyTimes though, Old Whiskey River for me and my horses--so let's start piecing this puzzle together.

1. Sedgefield (50-1) - Should be near the front with the early speed, but his best race came in the Lane's End where he sat in the middle of the pack and ended up second to Hard Spun. The horse is experienced by new Derby standards with five starts this year, but that 75 Beyer in his last race scares me. Needs a lot to go right to have any shot.

2. Curlin (7-2) - The big mystery horse. He's only run three times, but he's won them all impressively. His Arkansas Derby was effortless, beating Storm in May by 10 1/2 lengths, but he got a pretty good trip so I'm still throwing him out. Look at it this way, winning the Derby after not racing as a 2yo is like a high school star winning the NBA MVP award in his rookie season. WillCurlin be Kevin Garnett or Johnathan Bender? I think the experience factor is a lot to overcome, but if he does let the hype begin.

3. Zanjero (30-1) - The sort of horse, from the three slot, that spoils exotics. This year alone he's already lost to fellow starters Dominican, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Imawildandcrazyguy but he finished third in all three of those races. Classic example of a good but not good enough. Additionally, Garrett Gomez, Zanjero's jockey for his past two races, will be atop Any Given Saturday. I won't be shocked if this horse screws me, but if you can't omit a horse who's lost to 20% of the field already who can you omit?

4. Storm in May (30-1) - Showed a little heart to hold on to second in the Arkansas Derby, but there's not a lot else here. Beaten by both Curlin and Sedgefield and I'm not favoring either of those horses.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1) - If Zanjero was good but not quite good enough, Blahblahblahguy is average and not nearly good enough. Finished off the board in every race thus far this year.

6. Cowtown Cat (20-1) - Intriguing colt here coming off consecutive wins in the Gotham and the Illinois Derby after hooking up with Todd Pletcher. He's not the best horse Pletcher will have going on Saturday, but somehow that makes me like him more. War Emblem anyone? One to watch on the toteboard for win bets and probably a part of exotics.

7. Street Sense (4-1) - What more is there to say? Best Beyer in the field with victories over most of the other mid-range prospects. Let's just say he's probably not running for show money.

8. Hard Spun (15-1) - The toteboard will tell you all you need to know. How is the betting public going to respond to Hard Spun's ridiculous workout? I already think he's a value at 15-1 and if he goes up from there I'll bring out the hammer.

9. Liquidity (30-1) - Nakatani likes his chances better astride Great Hunter. So do I. Put up a 102 in the Sham Stakes, but still lost.

10. Teuflesberg (30-1) - After a one race stand with Edgar Prado, Teuflesberg is back with Stewart Elliot but it probably won't matter. Devil's Mountain has already been beaten by seven other Derby horses. That's not my kind of pony.

11. Bwana Bull (50-1) - The winner of the El Camino Real, my favorite graded stakes race name, has never won the Derby. Bwana finished behind both Tiago and Sam P. in the Santa Anita Derby and I barely like those two.

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1) - Consistency, consistency, consistency. Winner of three of his last four, Nobiz was bumped early on in his loss to Scat Daddy and Stormello in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. This horse is definitely on my ticket.

13. Sam P. (20-1) - Occupies an odd middle ground at 20-1 which gives me pause, but he's been beaten too often by too many others for me to give him a second look. Could be Pletcher's pawn in the grand scheme of things.

14. Scat Daddy (10-1) - He's beaten Nobiz and I like that horse, but Scat Daddy's had to work hard for his last two wins. The Derby is all about making tough choices and this might end up being mine.

15. Tiago (15-1) - Has improved his Beyer in ever race thus far, including an impressive Santa Anita Derby in his first race with Smith. Will probably end up near the bottom of my ticket, but if he floats upward of 15-1 he might be an intriguing win bet.

16. Circular Quay (8-1) - He's been in the hunt with every horse I like, but it probably won't be worth it to play him straight up. Easily a part of my exotics.

17. Stormello (30-1) - I was skeptical at first, but I think Stormello still gets to the front breaking from 17. That won't be where he ends up.

18. Any Given Saturday (12-1) - Finished on the board in all three 2007 starts and there's no reason not to play him. That said, I'm nervously leaving him off because I like others more.

19. Dominican (20-1) - Pretty good price considering he beat the second choice, Street Smarts, in his last out, but I think the extra distance does him in.

20. Great Hunter (15-1) - The first horse I fell in love with, it hurts me to see him all the way out there on the end. He's got the speed, he's got the jockey and he's got an excuse in the Bluegrass. After careful consideration, I'm saying screw it and taking him anyway.

My standard Derby approach is to work out an exotic or two early, then go shopping for value in the last hour before post. Without further adieu, here's how I'm leaning:

Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Storm Sense
Tiago
Circular Quay

And I'll be keeping a close eye on where Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat end up odds-wise.

At least that's my "twinkle." With all that thinking out of the way, let's remix Dobyns a bit: Troy has yet to fall, but play those country songs anyway.

I need to hear "Whiskey River" right now.