133rd Derby Tastes Chalky

Approximately eight seconds into the 133rd Kentucky Derby, I realized why this event is one of the best in all of sport. It's not the fancy hats or the bespoke suits or the silver cups. It's something much more primal than that. After the week-long coverage and the hour-long made-for-TV build up, you're left with a two minute race. It's a physical competition as old as man, something that happens naturally in backyards and playgrounds the world over. Line them up and let's see who is the fastest.

In the biggest such race in America, that horse was Street Sense. His impressive rally from 19 horses back to win snapped a number of Derby streaks:

• First Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby.
• First 2-year-old champion to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.
• First horse to win the Derby with two or fewer prep races since Sunny's Halo in 1983.
• First horse to win from the seven slot since Pleasant Colony in 1981.
• First Derby win for jockey Calvin Borel.

But there was one more thing that rarely happens at the Derby: the chalk came home. Street Sense was the longest favorite ever to win the Derby, but he was still the favorite. Hard Spun, the fourth choice by the time the race went off, held on to place after leading the field for much of the race. The morning line favorite and post time second choice, Curlin, came in to show. The $2 trifecta paid $440, the lowest total since 2000.

The reason the Derby is such a great, and difficult, race to handicap is because anything can happen. We see it almost every year. A lightly regarded horses hits the board (Bluegrass Cat, 2006) or even wins the whole thing (Giacomo, 2005). It's almost impossible to predict.

This year, however, the Run for the Roses was painfully logical. If not for Hard Spun's polarizing workout earlier in the week, this race could have finished 1-2-3 on the toteboard. Does this mean the race was in some way disappointing? Not in the least.

Street Sense's back of the pack rally to win could become the stuff of legend. Seeing the colt cut through the field like a shark fin through water is as good as it gets on the track. Was there greatness in that move? Unquestionably.

Is there greatness in that horse? We'll find out in two weeks at Pimlico but right now, I'm a believer.

Twinkling on the Eve of the Derby

"On the TV the announcer is predicting how the race
will be run and famous people are asked their opinions.
I wait for a twinkle in my brain but nothing happens. Still
it's all so exciting I want to talk to someone about it..."
--Kentucky Derby Day, Belfast, Maine
Stephen Dobyns

I've been waiting for that twinkle all week, through the workouts and the draw for post and the conjecture, but I'm fairly certain no magic realizations are coming. They never do.

You can't even call handicapping the Derby an inexact science. The inexact part is accurate, but science seems to imply that there's a way to figure this all out. In theory there is, but after seeing Giacomo win in person, I'm not so sure it isn't like trying to predict that lottery. The fact that I keep trying has less to do with some inherent belief in my own intellectual capacity and more to do with the excitement of participating in the spectacle, the excitement that Dobyns mentions above.

I've got my own julep in hand--no EarlyTimes though, Old Whiskey River for me and my horses--so let's start piecing this puzzle together.

1. Sedgefield (50-1) - Should be near the front with the early speed, but his best race came in the Lane's End where he sat in the middle of the pack and ended up second to Hard Spun. The horse is experienced by new Derby standards with five starts this year, but that 75 Beyer in his last race scares me. Needs a lot to go right to have any shot.

2. Curlin (7-2) - The big mystery horse. He's only run three times, but he's won them all impressively. His Arkansas Derby was effortless, beating Storm in May by 10 1/2 lengths, but he got a pretty good trip so I'm still throwing him out. Look at it this way, winning the Derby after not racing as a 2yo is like a high school star winning the NBA MVP award in his rookie season. WillCurlin be Kevin Garnett or Johnathan Bender? I think the experience factor is a lot to overcome, but if he does let the hype begin.

3. Zanjero (30-1) - The sort of horse, from the three slot, that spoils exotics. This year alone he's already lost to fellow starters Dominican, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Imawildandcrazyguy but he finished third in all three of those races. Classic example of a good but not good enough. Additionally, Garrett Gomez, Zanjero's jockey for his past two races, will be atop Any Given Saturday. I won't be shocked if this horse screws me, but if you can't omit a horse who's lost to 20% of the field already who can you omit?

4. Storm in May (30-1) - Showed a little heart to hold on to second in the Arkansas Derby, but there's not a lot else here. Beaten by both Curlin and Sedgefield and I'm not favoring either of those horses.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1) - If Zanjero was good but not quite good enough, Blahblahblahguy is average and not nearly good enough. Finished off the board in every race thus far this year.

6. Cowtown Cat (20-1) - Intriguing colt here coming off consecutive wins in the Gotham and the Illinois Derby after hooking up with Todd Pletcher. He's not the best horse Pletcher will have going on Saturday, but somehow that makes me like him more. War Emblem anyone? One to watch on the toteboard for win bets and probably a part of exotics.

7. Street Sense (4-1) - What more is there to say? Best Beyer in the field with victories over most of the other mid-range prospects. Let's just say he's probably not running for show money.

8. Hard Spun (15-1) - The toteboard will tell you all you need to know. How is the betting public going to respond to Hard Spun's ridiculous workout? I already think he's a value at 15-1 and if he goes up from there I'll bring out the hammer.

9. Liquidity (30-1) - Nakatani likes his chances better astride Great Hunter. So do I. Put up a 102 in the Sham Stakes, but still lost.

10. Teuflesberg (30-1) - After a one race stand with Edgar Prado, Teuflesberg is back with Stewart Elliot but it probably won't matter. Devil's Mountain has already been beaten by seven other Derby horses. That's not my kind of pony.

11. Bwana Bull (50-1) - The winner of the El Camino Real, my favorite graded stakes race name, has never won the Derby. Bwana finished behind both Tiago and Sam P. in the Santa Anita Derby and I barely like those two.

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1) - Consistency, consistency, consistency. Winner of three of his last four, Nobiz was bumped early on in his loss to Scat Daddy and Stormello in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. This horse is definitely on my ticket.

13. Sam P. (20-1) - Occupies an odd middle ground at 20-1 which gives me pause, but he's been beaten too often by too many others for me to give him a second look. Could be Pletcher's pawn in the grand scheme of things.

14. Scat Daddy (10-1) - He's beaten Nobiz and I like that horse, but Scat Daddy's had to work hard for his last two wins. The Derby is all about making tough choices and this might end up being mine.

15. Tiago (15-1) - Has improved his Beyer in ever race thus far, including an impressive Santa Anita Derby in his first race with Smith. Will probably end up near the bottom of my ticket, but if he floats upward of 15-1 he might be an intriguing win bet.

16. Circular Quay (8-1) - He's been in the hunt with every horse I like, but it probably won't be worth it to play him straight up. Easily a part of my exotics.

17. Stormello (30-1) - I was skeptical at first, but I think Stormello still gets to the front breaking from 17. That won't be where he ends up.

18. Any Given Saturday (12-1) - Finished on the board in all three 2007 starts and there's no reason not to play him. That said, I'm nervously leaving him off because I like others more.

19. Dominican (20-1) - Pretty good price considering he beat the second choice, Street Smarts, in his last out, but I think the extra distance does him in.

20. Great Hunter (15-1) - The first horse I fell in love with, it hurts me to see him all the way out there on the end. He's got the speed, he's got the jockey and he's got an excuse in the Bluegrass. After careful consideration, I'm saying screw it and taking him anyway.

My standard Derby approach is to work out an exotic or two early, then go shopping for value in the last hour before post. Without further adieu, here's how I'm leaning:

Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Storm Sense
Tiago
Circular Quay

And I'll be keeping a close eye on where Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat end up odds-wise.

At least that's my "twinkle." With all that thinking out of the way, let's remix Dobyns a bit: Troy has yet to fall, but play those country songs anyway.

I need to hear "Whiskey River" right now.

Great Hunter Shot Down? - The post Post Draw post

The NFL Draft should be so easy. In barely more than hour, using little cardboard cut-outs of jockey silks, they drew for post positions in Louisville Thursday. There were winners and losers and Mike Battaglia's morning line, all of which you'll find below.

Basically, we've got some information now so let's get started.

• I was starting to love Great Hunter (15-1). He's beaten Street Sense, the best horse in the field in my opinion, his speed figures are right there and he had an excuse in the Bluegrass Stakes. Now he's breaking from the 20th post, as poorly placed as possible. Fantastic. Thank you cruel fate.
• Stormello (30-1) was in over his head anyway, but he could've been a pacesetter in this race. His name would've been called most of the way around the track, the owner's silks would've gotten prime TV time. But now, breaking from 17, he's just another speed horse fighting to get inside.
• Street Sense is right in the thick of things, literally. He opened as the second choice at 4-1, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't end up as the people's choice.
• It might be time to reconsider Hard Spun (15-1). Sure he may have left his race on the track with his freakish workout on Monday, but out of the 8 slot he's in the right place for a big run. Now all that's left to see is the betting publics reaction to that workout. Will more people jump on or jump off?
• Oaklawn's dual champ, Curlin (7-2), drew the second post. Now, you can't discount what Curlin has done thus far this year. What you can discount is the fact that this is his only year. How will this lightly raced horse deal with starting in what amounts to the Derby's aisle seat, getting bumped and bruised in the sprint to the first turn?

So there you have it, some starting points. Talk amongst yourselves.

*UPDATE: For a my decidedly unscientific analysis of some of the contenders for FOXSports, click here.

Morning Walk-thru - She shines with her own kind of light

Live from Lincoln, it's Saturday Night! ESPN/ABC/Disney released the confirmed college footbaw games for their Saturday night primetime telecasts yesterday and it's an interesting slate. Tennessee-Cal open the season Sept. 1 in an intriguing rematch from last year. I'm sure the mustard-clad Bears will be particularly spicy considering the embarrassment they endured in Knoxville in 06.

Two weeks later, it's USC @ Nebraska and I'm already salivating. The game was already going to be big as the Cornhuskers are still looking for a marquee win that says "we're back." But when you throw Keller into the mix it gets even better. He's got something to prove after tossing 5 INTs the last time he faced the Trojans. Win that game, in what is sure to be the craziest night in Lincoln in some time, and Sam will never buy a drink in Nebraska again. (After he completes his eligibility of course. The NCAA is everywhere!)

After that it gets a bit dicier with Wazzu visiting LA the week after, followed by Notre Dame doing the same two weeks later against UCLA.

Papelbon blows it...A save that is. Sadly, he won't be perfect on the season. First Dice-K pitches like a mortal, now this. With the Red Sox payroll, is infallibility too much to ask?

Can't win for winning...Even when the Cubs are winning, they're not really winning. After fighting back valiantly to take a 6-5 lead against the Pirates in the 7th, the game was suspended due to rain.

Now all Chicago has to do is come back today, play out the rest of their game with a one-run lead, then turn around after a half-hour break and win again.

Do you think Vegas even takes bets on the odds against the Cubs winning two games in one day?

Baron & the Boys are going to regret this...For an extended amount of time last night, I really thought we were going to see the biggest NBA story unfold since Kobe's 80-point outburst last year. After going down by 21 early, Golden State climbed all the way back and looked like they were about to really beat the Mavericks. The Warriors were flying around, making threes, pounding their hearts and laughing--laughing--right in Mark Cuban's face.

But when it came down to it they couldn't, or didn't, deliver the death blow. Dirk Nowitzki realized that there was a playoff game going on around him, spurring a 15-0 run with a couple of threes to close out the game. We'll see how Golden State recovers back home.

I know one thing, I don't want this series to end. Watching games in Oakland reminds me of the good old days, and the "on-the-brink-of-the-biggest-upset-ever" tension has made even Mark Cuban speechless.

The next round fate of both teams is probably already written. Dallas survives and they can just make reservations for the conference finals. You don't survive something like this as a 1-seed and feel like you've cheated death. Meanwhile, if the Warriors win the road ends for them in the next round. You expend too much energy and emotion to keep it up.

Point is, enjoy it while it lasts.

Big in Kentucky...My recent FOXSports.com column, shamelessly linked in the post prior to this one, resulted in my first ever piece of hate mail and I couldn't be happier.

A native Kentuckian wrote to tell me she was "disgusted" by what I wrote, the whole hats and crying thing, and also assertiedthat I didn't care and/or knew nothing about the sport.

"Not everyone cares about football, basketball or baseball," she said and that was entirely the point I was trying to make.

Perhaps I should be more concerned with clarity. Nevertheless, it's always good to know someone is reading.

Let the pre-race hype begin

I've got a new column about the Kentucky Derby and what it means for your status as a die-hard sports fan up on FOXSports.com right now.

Now, it's time to break out the green and red ink pens and track down the videos from the Derby preps on-line. Once I do that and they draw for post positions tomorrow, we can finally start handicapping.

That said, I've got a couple of early favorites. Street Sense has shown some heart and Great Hunter has the potential to do it, but he's been spotty.

Nevertheless, I'll at least put something down on Great Hunter simply because it reminds me of the good doctor and Kentucky Colonel, Hunter S. Thompson. Reading his article, The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved, should be as much a part of your Derby preparation as buying fresh mint.

And if you're still feeling literary after that, check out Stephen Dobyn's poem, Kentucky Derby Day, Belfast, Maine. I hate poetry, but I love that one.

Tequila and Teardrops - Handicapping the Derby on Cinco de Mayo

I should've been ecstatic that the first Saturday in May just happened to follow Cinco de Mayo, but instead I spent most of the day concerned over how to adequately celebrate two of my favorite days of the year. I consider a well-made margarita one of the most exquisite cocktails a man can drink, but at the same time my own personal tradition dictates a stop at Brookline News & Gifts for the Form, followed by bourbon and Beyer speed figures on the Friday before the Derby. It's not like I could lose either way, but with a Saturday full of decision making ahead of me I didn't need any more confusion.

So I split the difference. I mixed up a margarita, put on Los Tigres Del Norte and watched the Kentucky Oaks, then broke out the Blanton's, mint leaves and colored pens and got to work dissecting the Derby. And like my first experience in 8th grade cutting up owl pellets, I'm left with a mess, but I'm going to try to make some sense of it.

The Derby is always a challenge to handicap. The horses are too young, the jockeys too good and the trainers too tight-lipped to garner any real insight. For every positive there's a negative, so in that sense it's like statistics and Bible verses, show me one that supports and I'll show you one that detracts. But at the same time, that's what makes the Derby great: so many opinions, so many opportunities and most of them can be supported on some front.

I don't consider myself an expert handicapper. I know enough to read the form and make some deductions, but beyond that I'm your average punter who makes it to the track three or four times a year. I guess I'm biased towards speed figures and a clear demonstration of competitiveness and heart. Every year I spend about a week prepping for the Derby, only to have everything derailed in the last 30 minutes to post, scrambling for some random win/place bets that have, so far, kept me in the black.

With that said, let's get to the horseflesh. (Listed by post position with morning line odds in parentheses.)

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1. Jazil (30-1)

A stone cold closer with little to recommend him other than the promise of a grueling pace and favorable post position. Jazil doesn't seem to have the Beyer figures of a Derby winner, minus the 97 he posted in the Wood Memorial. A closer will finish on the board, just not this one.

2. Steppenwolfer (30-1)

I really liked Steppenwolfer's close in the Arkansas Derby and he immediately became my longshot on the bottom of exotics. He's finished second to Lawyer Ron in two of his last three starts and the extra distance could help him if the first fractions are as hot as expected. I would like to see a Beyer in the triple digits, but I still think he can hit the board.

3. Keyed Entry (30-1)

Posted a 110 BSF in early February, but he's already lost to two Derby horses I'm not favoring. I hated the race he ran in the Wood Memorial, where it looked like he quit, and he seems primed to get locked in with the early speedsters.

4. Sinister Minister (12-1)

Is he the next War Emblem or not? No one thought that horse could take it gate to wire in 2002, but he managed it and Sinister Minister has the highest Beyer in the field after the Illinois Derby. I suspect you'll hear his name early, but not late.

5. Point Determined (12-1)

He has the blood to do it, sired by Point Given who was sired by former Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and the trainer in Baffert. His daddy lost as the prohibitive favorite and Point Determined will need a little luck early to disprove the "old adage", it's better Given than Determined. Probably a part of any exotics.

6. Showing Up (20-1)

I love when owners give you a built in slight with their colt's name and the people at Lael Stables have happily complied as I don't see Showing Up doing much more than that. It looks like this horse's best is a few races away as he's only got three lifetime starts. It's all a matter of experience, but he is 3 for 3 in those starts with speed figures that stack up. The Derby is a tough race for a newcomer, but I'll keep an eye on the tote board here for a late win wager if the odds are right.

7. Bob and John (12-1)

A bit of an overlay at 12-1, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't go off at odds longer than that. He's already lost to A.P. Warrior, Point Determined and Brother Derek and he looks like the least likely of Baffert's three to be in the running. Looks like he has the speed, but as with every horse in this race who can make that claim, can he rate?

8. Barbaro (4-1)

He's the co-second choice because, while he has speed, he has shown he doesn't mind holding back. I loved his strength in the stretch during the Florida Derby, holding off a hard-charging Sharp Humor and he'll probably get a portion of my betting interest in one form or another.

9. Sharp Humor (20-1)

This colt only has one loss this year, the aforementioned Florida Derby, and I was mighty impressed with his race there. If he can resist running with Sinister Minister early he could be a factor, but right now he looks like a tough omission. But if it's wet, watch out.

10. A.P. Warrior (15-1)

I absolutely love this horse for one reason: he's run against at least one fellow Derby starter in six of his eight lifetime starts. He's battle tested and he's been right in the thick of things with Point Determined and Brother Derek in the past. If he stays anywhere near 15-1 I'll take him straight up.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1)

Probably the most consistent Beyer figures of any horse in the field. He has a strong stretch run that seems tailor made for Churchill Downs, and, although he's the lone gelding, he showed a lot of balls in the Gotham following a bad trip. The only question with this horse is the value.

12. Private Vow (30-1)

Just make one not to take this horse here. Been chasing Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer in his last two, how can we expect him to get it done here?

13. Bluegrass Cat (30-1)

Another horse who's been beaten by other non-contenders in the field. Deputy Glitters, 50-1 on the morning line, beat him in the Tampa Derby and Storm Treasure, another 50-1 shot, took him in the Bluegrass Stakes.

14. Deputy Glitters (50-1)

Simply put, he ain't gold. After his performance in the slop at Aqueduct April 8, there's even less to like if it's wet.

15. Seaside Retreat (50-1)

Nope. His Beyer figures aren't even close, but his owner can always say he had a Derby horse. Could be over 100-1.

16. Cause to Believe (50-1)

Another owner making it to easy on we punters: I see little Cause to Believe here. (Thank you, I'll be here all night). This colt did beat Sinister Minister in the Cal Derby, but should be middle of the pack.

17. Lawyer Ron (4-1)

My favorite of the short priced horses. Ron's the most experienced horse in the field, an invaluable trait in the Riot for the Roses, with 14 career starts. Some concern about whether or not he'll be able to stay off the early pace, but he did show versatility in the Rebel Stakes coming from fourth to win by three lengths.

Also interesting with this horse, the estate of his late owner James Hines, Jr., sold a majority stake in this horse just days ago. A vote of no confidence or just striking while the iron is hot? I hope it was an attempt to raise questions and drive up the odds, but we'll see.

18. Brother Derek (3-1)

Nothing not to like here...other than he's the favorite and will be carrying a bit more baggage onto the track on Saturday. Derek's had his way for much of the prep season, and the only potential question is whether or not he can get the same favorable position breaking from 18. You have to make some difficult decisions, and leaving Brother Derek out might be mine.

19. Storm Treasure (50-1)

Doesn't seem to have the resume of a Derby winner. He needs the rail and he won't get it from out here.

20. Flashy Bull (50-1)

Not really scientific, but Bull's trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, looked absolutely pissed about getting the last choice in the post selection ceremony on Wednesday. It didn't inspire confidence. This is another horse that could possibly nibble for a piece if he were on the inside, but from 20 he'll need a miracle. Nearly a carbon copy of Storm Treasure.

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If the horses stick around their morning line odds (never happens), I'm looking at a finish of A.P. Warrior, Lawyer Ron, Steppenwolfer, and Barbaro. I'll probably box those four horses in some sort of exacta with Point Determined and then look for value on the tote board with straight up win bets on a few other underlays.

But my unconditional lock of the day for tomorrow? That my four buddies who will be waking up at 6 a.m. and shaking off their Cinco hangovers will definitely be calling as soon as they're on the road from Nashville to Louisville. I'm laying 1-5 on that. Vaya con dios!

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Check back on Sunday for a full recap of the day from Suffolk Downs, plus the ultimate demolition of my handicapping skills.