So That's What Memorial Stadium is Worth?

Buried at the bottom of this article from the Las Vegas Sun Jeff Haney notes that, at the Golden Nugget, Nebraska is already a 12-point underdog to USC.

Now, trying to create accurate spreads during the summer is patently ridiculous. Aside from the fact that nobody has seen any of these teams play yet, who knows what sort of injuries and off-field controversies will be in play come the third week of the season. Key players could be maimed, imprisoned, indefinitely suspended, returning from indefinite suspensions, wearing warm-ups on the sidelines or simply playing like crap. All of those things will be taken into account in the week leading up to the game to arrive at a final number and, as the article shows, it will likely be much different come game time.

So why even bother? Because there are two types of people who like to bet college football in July: 1) your average Joe who won't be in Vegas during the season, and 2) your average professional sports bettor who hasn't left the sports book in 225 days.

I'd like to think I fall somewhere in the vast middle, and what this number initially said to me is that Memorial Stadium might not be worth as much as it once was from a point-spread perspective. But after a closer look, I'm not so convinced.


These super advance point-spreads have all the validity of preseason rankings and everyone hates those, but what factors could've possibly played in to this SC-NU line? Last year's spread ended somewhere around SC -18.5, so from the start we're a touchdown better than where we were, and the most immediate difference between 06 and 07 is the location so immediately it looks like Lincoln earns us 6-points right off the bat.

But you have to think that SC gets a couple of points in the quarterback department. Booty is back and Keller is essentially a wash at his point. Sam should be an upgrade over Keller, but there's also the rustiness/new system blues to contend with so I'll say he's +/- 0, and Booty probably warrants +/- 1.5 on his own.

Purify's status is probably another +/-0.5 alone, so in my mind that's 2-points back to USC. Maybe add in another 1-point for our green defensive line. Those seem like the most quantifiable elements two months out and, in reality, USC probably has an edge in almost every personnel match-up. That's why they're #1.

So, if we use last year's spread as the starting point, add in the advantages we can foresee this year, we have USC -21. The number is -12, so Memorial Stadium is worth more than a touchdown?

I guess it's possible. This isn't highly scientific stuff, but my question now is: do you take Nebraska at -12?

And, of course, what this question is really asking is: do you think the Cornhuskers will be less than a double-digit dog come September 15?